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David's Forecasts and/or Recommendations |
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It's not uncommon for David to make future recommendations or predictions for an industry during a presentation.
We are currently in the process of reviewing previous work to extract such forecasts. We added this segment in late 2007 and we are catching up! |
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Energy (2003)
Wind energy using solar floating platforms will be used by smaller countries limited by natural resources.
Price of gas to reach $5.00
Ethanol is a big mistake if one believes it will solve the issues with energy. With 36 more plants to be built in the next few years all we are doing is taking $1.00 to make $1.00.
Energy (2008)
There is riot point when it comes to energy. In the states here's the situation. Gas is at about $3.76, food is up upwards of 40%, and insurance is up again 14%+, subprime is hurting the typical family, technology has displaced even more workers, and the job market is tight.
To make matters worse, energy bills will double or triple in the next 5 years pushing many households to the lmiit.
Additionally, there is no current technology in sight to reach the expected 1,137,000 MW of energy needed in the US. Currently we are at 987,000 MW. This means a $150,000 MW shortfall in the next decade.
To fill this need the US would have to have 75 nuclear plants built or 75,000 wind mills created. It takes upwards a decade to get approval for a nuclear reactor. The total would be 450 necessary for complete independance. TBoone Pickens has the largest windmill farm on the table with 4000MW to be produced annualy with a completion date of 2014 and a budget of $10 billion
Even though the US has enough high sulfer coal to fuel the US for decades this coal is shipped over the China where they are putting on line 2 coal burning plants a week to supply their need for coal. The US uses low sulfer coal and one plant each plant in China produces enough CO2 to eliminate all the efforts put forth by the US. Most low sulpher coal comes from Wisconson and this requires transportatoin costs that with given costs may outway the benefits.
One belief is that CSS coal may help fill the deman were CO2 is pumped back into the ground. The Electric Power Research Institute is betting the future on this technology. Unfortunatly, from 2011-2021 demand will far out strip capacity.
Rolling blackouts and brownouts are without certain in the future.
Conservation will not be a factor in curtailing any of these challenges.
1. The cost of florescent bulbs reaches $9 a bulb for 10,000 hours and the current luminesent bulb is 10,000 for $0.41 at Home Depot for a pack of 24.
2. The typical family cannot afford to pay for better insulation, improved A/C or heating furnaces given that the american families savings has dropped from 7.3% in 1988 to .4% in 2006. (Ask me about the story of the family about to lose their home that opened up a Curcuit City card for a big screen TV, a Ford loan for to replace a two year old Ford truck as they liked the newer model and the $1500 credit card approval for a vacation they really needed....and they could not pay their mortgage!)
3. The cost of gas, food and the value of the dollar is making it even more difficult for the typcical American to balance their budgets.
4. The cost to manufacture energy is about 81% of the cost to create power. Conservation only will cut back on a small fraction of the total dollar.
In the Tennessee Valley there is an initiative to save 1400 MW through conservation and yet this same savings is negated by commercial establishments such as Hotels that run their A/C even while a customer is not in the room. When a customer leaves the room for the day this same room is kept cool.
No amout of savings will save 150,000 MW given our current growth expectations.
At what point is there a riot point
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Farming (2006)
GPS and wireless linked combine and tractor delivery system. Given that a class 9 combine can process 40 ton/hour the synchronization of the combine and several tractors will increase production significantly. Several tractors can be in wireless queue with each tractor positioned via computer. When one is full, the GPS and the computer move one tractor out of the way and then the next one, on autopilot, moves into place.
Unmanned harvesting using the same technology with the operator sitting at a computer. This technology will be introduced once liability issues are removed for both the equipment manufacturer and the GPS en abler.
Consolidation of Main Line and Short Line (Specialty Line) Manufacturers. Short Line Manufacturers will have to due to energy cost increases, labor challenges, innovation development and overseas low cost production.
Ethanol as a substitute for gasoline is a big mistake given that it produces less enegy or equal amounot of energy than what it produces and it's impossible to harvest enough production to meet long term demands. TRUST ME THIS WAS TOUGH TO TELL THE FARM EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION at their annual conference. |
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Water and Sewage (2005)
United States by the year 2025 will introduce desalination technologies to regional water systems.
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California League of Food Producers (2004)
Consolidation will continue in every segment of California League of Food Processors and ½ will survive 10 years.
Technology will increase product transportability, growing season and the life of the product through Genetic engineering
Logistics and operations saving will not compensate for price reductions in commodity strategies for most firms.
Those that add “fresh” to their product line will capture significantly higher profits with no modification to the product.
China will convert their 1000’s of small farmers to high tech farming where farmers will bring product to a single facility servicing multiple farms versus on site storage and processing.
China will also be an opportunity for minimal growth for US production.
Product diversification and partnership development will be the reason firms survive when interest rates rise in the next decade.
Reverse auctions will keep prices low as major retailers push discounting.
Those that move to the outside lanes of the retail store today will continue to have profits eventually erode…a long process.
Those that control imports or align with imports now will double their chance of survival.
California will struggle with water supply challenges.
Significantly higher energy and land costs in California will severely limit growth in the CLFP segment.
CLFP member will struggle with overcapacity as technology advances increase yields.
CLFP customers will continue to consolidate.
Supply chain and packaging that’s integrated with retailers will drive sales as a significant competitive advantage. |
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Public Transportation (2005)
US public transportation needs four factors to achieve 10+ % ridership:
1. Universal payment system. (You should be able to use your card in NYC, San Francisco and Atlanta and your own community as a universal pass.) This little switch would enable users to keep only one card in their pocket and most likely try another service around the country.
2. Connectivity of community public transportation systems with other communities (County roads, bridges and infrastructures, link to the next infrastructure. The same is necessary in order to increase ridership. Currently the systems do not connect.) Currently you can't travel from Seattle to San Diego or Atlanta to Boston without jumping to an Amtrak or another service. It's like building a bridge only half way and then stopping in the middle of the gorge.
3. Singular transportation guides throughout the system. (There needs to be one universal travel guide so that like airline travel, no one needs to relearn how to use a system.) I know I personally dread trying to figure out the maps in each city. Airlines have one system and so should the public transportation sector.
4. Transportation authorities need to be established. (Today, road and mass transit are at odds over how to use funding. With a transit authority the objective of the organization is to serve the public transportation needs in the best manner possible.) Right now the road and highway industry is 10x more powerful than all the other services so when it comes to funding they get 90% of the pie even if it's not the best use of the money to move people in that region.
5. Lastly, the future of public transportation will never improve until the industry moves from viewing that there are two types of users to three. Currently there exists the lingo that there are people with CHOICE and those Without Choice. With choice means they can use alternative forms of transportation however if gas goes up $1 per gallon they might move into the Without Choice category.
Obviously these users have only one method to get to work, shopping, visiting the doctor, etc. The group I suggested the industry see in the future is the group with MEANS. These are the people who earn $1 million per year and use the NYC Metro to get to work in the morning. These are the poeple with political and financial capital. Those that would insure that NYC never closes the metro system.
What this means ot the industry is "Density" must be defined differently. They may get 50 people on the train in a low income neighborhood however 17 people from the high income community. The difference is the high income users will make sure that there is a system at all for two reasons. They will be aware of the product AND it's self serving. Thier kids use it every day. (For those that don't know, the industry looks for density of population to determine service development.)
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Healthcare |
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Transportation |
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The immediate future of DOT regulatory inspections will move to wireless monitoring where semis will drive into a bay and all DOT measurements and safety functions will be captured within seconds. Tread depth though cameras, oil and gas sensor, lug nuts with video, etc. Video captured driver image and information will be stored as a record of the vehicle along with all maintenance and surveillance information fed to specific necessary departments. This means purchasing agents will auto check inventory for parts, maintenance can schedule based on keeping the highest amount of safe trucks on the road and modeling can calculate long term needs of the fleet. |
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Retail (2006)
Future marketing will not focus on "location, location, location" but "access, access, access." (2006)
The Multidimensional Buyer will be the dominant buyer in the 2000's (2006) |
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Advertising (Marketing, Promotional Products, TV, Media) |
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Not-For-Profit |
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Accounting/Finance (2004)
Technological advancements will initially remove the tasks inherent to accounting while shifting some complex tactical roles overseas. This will reposition the accountant as truly an intellectual function where the role is to capitalize on economic strengths.(2004)
The second shift will be completely automated; IA systems will eliminate most of the accounting functions within an organization. (2004)
First wave is the automation of accounting functions shrinking accounting clerical workers. Second wave is the off shoring and outsourcing of accounting functions. Third wave is the automation of complex functions removing both clerical and cognitive thinking from accounting departments. The impact will be that those in accounting departments will be focused on strictly evaluating and making financial strategic decisions, not tactical. (2002)
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Incentive Marketing (2006)
The incentive marketing industry has moved away from ROI with the belief that it's challenging to produce evidence of success. Unless the industry differentiates itself from the promotional products industry, their future will continue to be driven and challenged by retailers with gift cards and the perception that their value added is not worth the price.
For those in the incentive industry that have developed gift cards, the only way to gain traction is to offer enough product selection. Trying to carry inventory, create agreements and then to support the gift card effort will produce insignificant earnings to support the efforts. The solution is to generate partnerships throughout the industry, with other multi-line companies that enable the breadth and depth of the cards' offerings to be extensive. This strategy can create rapid returns in limited time. Instead of 18 lines, three firms joining forces might have 73 lines and 2000 products to offer, enabling the companies to compete in the gift card industry. |
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Conference/Convention Industry (2006)
Having been hit with the "Perfect Storm," the conference industry must make significant advancements in it's future direction to mitigate current trade show and conference attendance trends.
In the past 5 years the industry has been hit with 9/11, the dot.com bust and the rapid communications/infrastructure evolution. 9/11 adversely impacting both the desire for some to travel and corporate's view of the investments made in conference attendance. The dot.com bust forced companies to evaluate all what returns were necessary for any investment. Quite the opposite of the 1990's. The communications/infrastructure changes allowed individuals to reach globally without ever traveling. Phone, email, internet, VPN's, Video conferencing all have altered the perception of when and where one must travel.
What needs to be done.
1. ROI for conference attendees must be re-evaluated. A $450 ticket is not the entire deliverable the meeting planner must return. Add two people, three nights stay, air travel, miscellaneous costs, payroll and opportunity costs and a mere $450 jumps to $5000 in cash and another $25000 in lost earnings for an individual. This number may vary. The question is, does the event bring these types of returns.
2. Technologically the industry needs to move into the 21st century. Think back to your last conference and you'll realize you still have paper documentation to walk the floors, management uses Walkie Talkies (a 1970-80's technology) to communicate with others,, conference changes are still announced on a PA system and you have no tools to evaluate the event.
The future of the space will be this; you will be handed a screen when you register and on there you will have the agenda in real time, a GPS to guide you through the facility, history on the programs and speakers, the ability to gain insight into a presentation such as if the speaker SUCKS or chairs are still available, local attractions to visit and even a digital tool to find those you wish to meet (given they've given you the permission.)
The management will run the event with digital CPM and Ghant charts so all vendors will be connected. If you've ever seen a War Room at an event, there is no automation only people working on computers to print out charts, manage stages of the event, email, and make documents for printing. The War Room should be all digital. For example, want a master electrician? A digital message will be sent to the employee (NOT A WALKIE TALKIE) who will be notified to go to the Grand Room for fix an outlet for an event happening in 7 minutes. A second electrician might be notified to finish the job he's been working on in the trade show floor. No one needs to talk at all. At the same time all vendors are working off the same, real time plan. Handoff's from one project to another happen all through the network and not through verbal or hand typed email. Without leaving the War Room, the entire conference can be run even through a place like the Javitz in NY City.
3. Last important area of significant change will occur in the area of Social Networking. Conference planners believe their role is education and networking. Place people in a big box and they will get the education the need and the meet the right people. Youths' social networking must be transferred to the conference floor. Facebook.com is an example. In this environment students around the world are connected through interests and needs. (Too much to explain here.) The same will hold true in the adult world. When attending a conference, the meeting planners, to get the ROI, must facilitate the connection in a digital manner. I want to meet you (or my tablet computer algorithm says I must meet you.) The computer notifies both parties and GPS locators help me find you throughout the event. Too much today is random. |
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Teleservices Industry (2006)
Future teleservices organization will have their organization spread throughout the world in bits and bites verses in one location aiding in redundancy along with making the organization more flexible.
Firms that can create a transparency between their clients ERP/CRM and other Databases will enable real time customer support as well as the ability to have self generating algorithms to support global shifts in customer service delivery.|
Outbound teleservices is a dying service not just because of do not call lists but because many of the businesses that these industries support are dying.
The only way the teleservices business can improve their operations is to improve the technology to the call in a way that takes uses the human for intelligence and technology for the mundane tasks. For years the industry has seen a 41-42 minute per human operational threshold. With technology the human would only work on functions of thought while the machine speaks.
Teleservices firm must not see themselves as teleservices but as a deliverer to the multidimensional buyer that wants several ways to make the connection to the firm. Additionally if the firm screws up, like in retail, the buyer sill go elsewhere.
The do-no-mail list at the current 19 states will not win however limitations will be set on bulk mail that will hinder the teleservices industry.
Self regulation won't work given that there are 56,000 call centers in the US and only 5000 belong to the American Teleservices Association. It's those that don't belong that are hurting those willing to make calls the proper way by scrubbing list, not calling on holidays per state regulation, etc. The number 56,000 does not include the firm that just set up 6 seats in the back of the office to sell product.
The teleservices industry, in order to secure self regulation, must differentiate between inbound and outbound calls. The outbound call product is for all intents and purposes a dead animal. The inbound however is very much alive and even though people have issues with the quality of some call centers there are few that would argue we need them. For those that don't know, inbound my be a hospital or the Center for Disease Control that answers questions about health and disease, your phone service, product and tech support, travel agents, hotel and airline centers. The list is endless. If the call center industry focuses on self regulation in this arena they could easily win. (If they are lumped together....big mistake.)
A huge challenge with the future of the industry is regulation of the not-for-profits including universities and fund raisers. The police fund that gives only 10 cents on the dollar to the police department. Just last week I had three calls in two days to support my police.
To many companies in the industry are going to change legislation given they interpret existing relationships as one that had expired and is still active. (Existing Business Relationship - EBR) The government will dictate that an existing relationship will be one that is current and one that has been terminated is therefore over.
Given that the global position on talent capable of writing algorithms is limited the future of algorithm development will be self writing algorithms.
Teleservices firm will empower employees and customers through a shared interface so that both parties are looking at the same information on both ends of the connection. If you’ve ever said to call center CSR that what you see on your screen, PDA or media is different than what they see you’re one that might be helped if you can share similar visuals.
Complete follow-up interactions will be traced and monitored NOT just the inbound or outbound call in isolation. This means that when a CSR says that someone will look into the matter the connection or action will be traced as if it is part of the call centers operations until resolution.
Teleservices firms will not be able to leverage CRM integration between their firm and their clients firm until those in the Teleservices industry USE CRM themselves and learn how to guarantee the entire organization uses the tools. In one audience of 120 leaders in the industry only 8 used CRM and only 3 of the 8 believe they create clean data. As for a total organizational CRM implementation not one person said their firm uses the technology
Open source application development will be the standard in the industry and not proprietary software for the main reason being that finding talent is extremely challenging. IE Mozilla was created by a disgruntle IE user who launched an open source environment so that the users can improve the product. THIS WILL NOT FOR EVERY SITUATION.
Humans will accept non-human interactions once the dialog is smoother. Give the industry another 5 years.
In the states there is a lack of applicants for call center positions and yet globally this is not the case. Either technology will be the solution or outsourcing to other countries. Americans still want the phone answered and with little talent available, we must go where business can be done best.
Teleservices firms must see their service as not an outside firm delivering a service but more of an extension of the existing firm so that the entire client is engaged to support higher level deliverables. |
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Auto Appraisal Industry (2006)
uter notifies both par |
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Commercial Construction (2006)
Construction companies are in for a big wake up call in the next ten years especially in the United States. The most pressing issue often raised is the lack of skilled talent. That's not the biggest challenge. The reason is labor or manpower is not a challenge it is a solution to a way of doing business that's been hands on for years. The challenge is being in the 21st century.
The future will include the need to do the following:
* Deliver a more sophisticated education to the workforce. Large firms and small firms have been doing the same type of business for years with little change. Other industries have added a higher level of sophistication to building their businesses and yet many sub contractors and many construction firms have a very low level education base. Many have learned the industry from the ground up without any advanced business tools. The industry needs less touchy feely and more real management tools that have changed the manufacturing and logistics industries.
* Technology has to become the both the starting point and leverage point of the future. Those that highly incorporate robotics and technology advances will dominate in 10 years. Cameras and sensors to monitor progress (so supervisors don't need to be on site), supply chains software to manage projects, inventory and linkage systems tying employees to critical path programming will be the first steps in eliminating manpower considering the US does not have the population in the pipeline. Hardy's done with with Call Centers taking orders for customers in remote locations. Rock quarries have added belt systems to eliminate drivers. Construction firms must make the advances by spending the money to advance such tools as the Berkeley Lower Extremity Exoskeleton - where a human could carry 200 pounds.
*
Integrated partnerships must be solidified to make progress. Wal-Mart and Toyota along with most modern manufacturing companies can see right through the supply chain. In 10 years the construction industry will be no different. They will be able to see what's happening with key suppliers to insure that everyone is in sync. The same will happen upstream to suppliers. "What's coming in the pipeline so I know my future." Integration will also happen with tool and supplier manufactures to develop new technologies to drive out labor. By 2015 there will be robotics on the job site and not just equipment. With the right partnerships new technologies will be introduced.
* Just like the automotive industry which lost close to 40% of its employees during the past three decades to automation and an additional 30% to outsourcing, the same will happen to the construction industry. Basic administrative functions will no longer need to be on site, so they could be in India or China if necessary to drive down costs. The future will take many "American" companies and convert them into multi-national organizations where deliverables can be run from anywhere on the planet.
Construction, a highly hands on business, in the next 10-15 years will rapidly transform itself to a digital, hands off, business. Its primary driver: no more skilled workers and fewer and fewer children who wish to enter the industry. Two reasons...outside work in hot or cold weather and the illusion of office work being a cushy job. (Construction will continue to pay high earnings for those will the physical skills. If you've got the ability to do the work "mentally," you're going to be worth a ton of money.)
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Shopping Center Industry (2007)
1. The sub prime lending troubles are right sizing the personal home ownership condition. Over the past 10 years those that could not afford a home and the extras that come along with home ownership were able to pick up loans that to a large degree extended the families beyond their means. For some, money that should be saved, or used for personal enjoyment, went into alternative expenses including, lawn care, house repairs, fixture purchases, heat and air conditioning utility bills, taxes and other such costs incurred with ownership.
For others the ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) solution allowed for early entry without a strong foundation or even an understanding of risks associated with such an investment tool.
I projected back in 2006 that the bankruptcy and foreclosures would carry on forward into 2009 and in doing such families will have to start over. However, they will do so at a level in which they can afford. More importantly, the hope is they will learn through this ordeal strategies that will enable the individual to handle their money more responsibility along with allowing the individual a more balanced discretionary budget to enjoy life versus struggling to make ends meet.*
2. “Napster Conundrum:” when an industry does not keep pace with consumer needs innovative entrepreneurial companies will create alternative solutions that transform an industry. In the case of the recording industry, producers were rapidly launching poorly developed CDs where the buyer only liked a song or two on the product. The founder of Napster identified this challenge and created software that allowed file sharing of songs. In essence, it allowed individuals free access to music and more importantly access to the songs they wished to hear. The next iteration became Apple iTunes where an individual can purchase a single song for $0.99 each. (The result was billions in sales.) Surprisingly, the same people who downloaded free tracks also purchase high quality songs from Apple.)
3.
The NetFlix model is outdated and is a model ripe with issues prevalent in the year 2000. Here are a few. Netflix is stuck with an infrastructure designed around the purchase and shipping of DVDs using the internet. (Just because a firm uses the net does not mean it’s an internet business.) They can’t force users to watch more films nor can they charge more for the use of the product. NetFlix’s only competitive position today, is discounting and securing new clients. Blockbuster on the other hand has a different position, a multi-dimensional model which allows consumers multiple means of access. (See white paper on home page.) Blockbuster has brick and mortar, internet access similar to Netflix and the potential to go VOD. Their first strategy, to reduce store locations foot print while tying inventories to consumer usage, will allow customers two different approaches to the same product. Mail or walk in. The company also has the ability to enable Video on Demand rounding out the consumer that fits multiple profiles.
4. Winners in the shopping center industry will focus on the outcomes desired by consumers and not building buildings. Translation, stores may in many respects change their models to match consumer needs. Grocery stores will turn into distribution centers full of robotics tied to PDA, smart homes and GPS systems allowing for a smart home to signal to the center that supplies are low triggering robots to pull inventory to be ready for pick-up on the ride home after picking up the dry cleaning that will be also triggered by hand held technology. The result may be that the shopping center may also be a traffic cop offering easy in and easy out solutions. By the way, you pick your meats through a glass window, you can and will do the same from your car seat.
5.
Parking lots will become intelligent. When one enters a lot the consumer wants to be close to the store in which they are to visit. The car will be directed to the closest possible location for both entrance an exiting from the store given that hand held’s or similar devices will aid consumers in their shopping patterns through a facility, especially if they are in a hurry.
6. Lifestyle centers are not life style centers because they don’t create community!. People don’t want to spend time at shopping centers. Period. Life is at home with family and friends. Therefore, clowns, fireworks and all the other extras won’t create community nor will individuals pursue life at a mall. Besides a successful shopping center draws from further and further distances, therefore, the better the design the less chance of community.
Granted if you changed the demographics and infrastructure, certain shopping centers may work such as in Redmond. In the end, people don’t want to go to a shopping center; they want a life, and the less they spend on tasks of shopping, the better the more rewarding their lives may be.
7. The style of many life style centers is that of an open environment. The benefit is that stores can easily be changed and space added while covered mall environments are more challenging. Those that build in these types of malls will win by default as they have much more capacity to change with changing times. Harriman NY is an example of such a sprawling metropolis.
8. Urban consumer and multi dimensional buyer don’t only see price they look at the entire package including access, shopping experience, and ease.
9. The retailers will fight to keep retailing traditional while the manufactures will continue look to create a direct connection to the consumer. Two models fighting for the same space. Consider the automotive environment. Their ultimate would be a holographic image of a car in a consumer's home where an individual can pick out the options they want and order the car from their couch. The retail wants the consumer to come in to see the car. From a marketing perspective you’ve not go Microsoft building smart retailing operations watching everything that happens to a consumer once they enter the store while their manufacturing division is using robots and smart technology to try to reach the consumer in a completely different manner.
10. Future is a transparent supply chain where the entire vertical and suppliers can see within their counterparts' offices so as to meet demand as quickly as possible.
11. Stores of the future will tie inventory level of the home to mobile devices that when critical balances are dropped, the system will start a reordering system tied to GPS. The refrigerator says inventory balance is low for the meal you wish to make as your son used some milk and eggs. This triggers the home to notify the shopping center that there is an order of 76 items that may need to be picked up in the near future. At the same time, the dry cleaner sends a notice to the home that the dry cleaning is ready. The home notifies your personal device and then asks if you want to pick up the merchandise. When you enter the car, GPS gives you the best route to pick up the items in the best order. When you arrive at the cleaner's, the product is robotically pulled to be ready as you drive around the corner, payment is digital, and the shopping center robotically pulls the goods to match traffic patterns. Multiple robots will be pulling so instead of 20 minutes it may take 4.32 minutes to pull all the merchandise. You select the meats and fish and drive up to a loading platform. |
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Adult Industry (2007)
Be advised that I was asked to predict the future of the industry...not to pass judgment.Click Here |
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Road Construction (2006) |
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Property and Casualty Insurance Industry (2006) |
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Private-School Industry (2006) |
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Fair Industry (2007) |
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FOD Aerospace Industry (2005) |
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Horticulture Industry (2006) |
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